Five researchers offer their perspectives on the evolution of conflict

A year after the start of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine, many scenarios are possible in the future of this war. Shall we attend? “Prolonged Conflict”A forced compromise or a “A Russian Collapse Will Lead to a General Defeat”? Will the promised Western armor for the Ukrainian army allow it? “A New Major Counterattack” or moving towards “Positional Warfare with Constant Artillery Exchanges” ? the world He asked five experts how they envisioned the aftermath of the conflict.

“A Conflict Hypothesis Where neither can prevail, there is greater opportunity.” -Camille Grant

Researcher and Head of Security Studies at the European Council on International Relations and former Deputy Secretary General of NATO

“There is a lot of uncertainty about the capabilities of both sides, but from a military point of view three scenarios seem possible. A conflict that no one can win will last, and that seems very likely to me. It could be similar to the conflict in Donbass between 2015 and 2022, with greater intensity. This situation will be in their favor. In Moscow, we believe in numerical and material superiority, at least in scale, while in Kiev, we bet on the exhaustion of a non-threatening Russian people and the help of an ever-strengthening Western force.

The second hypothesis: Ukrainians, who have not communicated their losses, are more tired than we think and will end up being forced to accept compromise. This scenario strikes me as politically unacceptable and highly unlikely, given their determination and Western support, that’s for sure. Ukraine’s allies have been saying for months that a Russian victory is out of the question. Therefore, if they are to be credible in Moscow’s eyes, they are obliged to at least provide the means to hold him.

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The last hypothesis: Ukrainian forces, with better morale, better training, better supervision, better intelligence, better quality equipment – if not yet in quantity – can, as happened in Kharkiv, Isium or Kherson in the fall. A new Russian collapse at some point on the front would lead to a general defeat and force Moscow to seek a way out of the conflict. Militarily, it is not completely excluded, firstly, the Ukrainians have already broken the front at least three times, and then if the Ukrainians can withstand the attack, we may have doubts about the capabilities and morale of the Russians. . »

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