S&P 500 futures fell slightly ahead of more retail gains ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, October 21, 2022.

Source: NYSE

S&P 500 futures fell slightly Sunday night ahead of another batch of retail earnings to kick off a shorter Thanksgiving week.

Futures contracts linked to the broad market index fell 0.1%. Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 38 points, or 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures hovered at the flat line.

The major averages posted an up day but down week in the previous trading session. The Dow Jones rose nearly 200 points, or 0.6%. The S&P rose 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite closed just 0.01% above the flat line.

Investors have been pondering the strength of the recent rally in the bear market, which kicked off earlier in the month with the October CPI reading and gained some steam with last week’s wholesale price reading. Traders last week paused for messages from Fed officials, who were less impressed with the numbers, and reassessed their optimism about the possibility of a slowdown in inflation.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said that in his view, the Oct. 12 low was the bottom and that the S&P 500 could climb to near 4,300 by the end of the year, he told CNBC on “The Closing Bell: Overtime” Friday night. The benchmark is currently at 3965.34.

“What makes the big difference in the market is the resilience of the economy, it’s been amazing,” he said. “Everyone was arguing about whether we were going to have a soft landing or a hard landing—and at the same time, no landing at all. The consumer didn’t get the recessionary note and kept spending.”

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Retail sales increased in October, but companywide, Target reported slowing demand and Amazon announced it would lay off 10,000 employees — though Home Depot and Walmart reported strong results.

“Despite what holiday spending might suggest, retail stocks tend to be in the top three for November, but in the bottom three for December, and somewhere in the middle of the bunch in January,” Liz Young, chief investment strategist at SoFi, said. he said in a note this weekend.

“Seasonality has a place in market analysis and has some predictability. But the power of the economic cycle is stronger no matter what time of year it is,” she added. “With 375 basis points of Fed rate hikes to date, the inverted yield curve, sharp rises in inflation, and commodity prices still part of the narrative, we can all conclude that we are behind in the economic cycle.”

This week, which has been historically quiet before Thanksgiving, investors will be busy with another batch of retail earnings to soak up before the post-holiday shopping season gets underway. Best Buy, Nordstrom, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Dollar Tree are among the companies on deck.

Investors will also get access to a series of economic reports, including durable goods, new home sales, unemployment claims and consumer confidence, as well as the release of minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting.

next week He is short. The market will be closed on Thursdays for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the stock exchanges will close at 1pm ET and the bond market will close at 2pm ET.

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