War in Ukraine. Three questions surrounding the embargo on Russian oil, the biggest approval

Meetings of energy ministers on Monday, May 2 The ambassadors of the 27 member states heated up telephone and video conferencing screens in all the capitals of the Union in Brussels on Wednesday. Objective: To reach an agreement that should be unanimous on this issue, and gradually stop buying Russian petroleum products by the end of this year.

This is the sixth if the commission’s plan, which is due to be submitted Wednesday, has been verified by the states Obstacles train From the beginning Invasion of Ukraine on February 24 Will have the worst consequences for Russia. More likely to retaliate. This is why Brussels is also involved in the Russian retaliation. On April 27, Putin cut off gas pipelines to Poland and Bulgaria. On the basis that they did not pay in rubles as he wished. However, companies from many countries, especially Germany, will have to pay for Gazprom in the coming weeks.

Why is this ban so important?

According to the International Energy Agency, hydrocarbons (!) Could buy up to 21 100 billion as the European Union lays on the table billions of euros (including 12.3 million military, economic and humanitarian aid so far) to help Ukraine defend itself from an invader in 2021. [Ici, en anglais].

The embargo on Russian oil, which brings more gas (20 billion) to Moscow (80 billion in 2021), will be a severe blow. For Europeans who are less dependent on gas than Russian oil, managing is less complicated and therefore less painful.

Of course, Russia will have the opportunity to sell its oil to other customers. This is theoretically easier than gas supplied through expensive pipes or LNG terminals. But in reality, this process is complex and does not apply to all products sold in Europe today.

Why is this ban so complicated?

It represents the consensus of 27 European countries. However, not all of them are equal in the face of Russian oil. Two countries in particular present a problem: Slovakia and above all Hungary Of Victor Orban, Putin’s last friend in the European Union. Both of these lands are supplied exclusively by Russian pipelines. They have no ports, they say Yes If their EU allies offer them alternatives. There will be cost involved.

Looking at products elsewhere, given the weight of the European economy, the risk of an increase in world prices or an oil shock and a global recession is another risk.

What is the Commission’s strategy?

Go step by step! The plan is to reduce imports by the end of this year, giving time to develop alternatives, and to reduce the weight of the global market. Brussels also began to use this technique several days ago.

6th A set of actionsIt is intended to allow The entire oil ecosystem of RussiaAccording to commission chairperson Ursula van der Leyen, other levers are included. By the end of the year, but for the remaining quantities that cannot be done without the EU, it plans to tax Russian oil shipments by tanker. To embarrass Russia, Sberbank, the company that represents 37% of the Russian oil market, should be excluded from the Swift Intermediate Exchange.