Can we fear an armed conflict between Western Europe and Russia?
– c_l_e_m_clem (on Instagram)
We contacted the military historian Michael Goya, Former Colonel of the Navy. Here is his answer:
“The answer is no. For now, we have no reason to collide. Between the Atlantic Alliance and Russia, we are in a two-volume nuclear-armed conflict. Nuclear weapon is like the queen on the chessboard: even if it is immovable, it exists and it affects the whole game. So Rule No.1 Atomic forces do not collide directly. Very dangerous.
Then everything under the nuclear umbrella is more or less protected. In the Baltic countries, NATO members have stationed French, British and US air forces. They do not need to stop Russian armored units, But simply to force the Russians to kill the French, British or Americans. This will, suddenly, elevate the extension toward the most dangerous threshold, which is the nuclear threshold.
On the other hand, in zones outside of these limits, this nuclear umbrella is a bit of a rule: the first appears to occupy the ground and expel another. In other words, if we really wanted to defend Ukraine, we would have been well established in 2014, even before that. We would have moved to a blocking position. The green light for the Russians said we did not do it, we would never do it.
Collected by Romain Boulho.
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