A short-lived rebellion But an extraordinary challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s two-decade grip on power could have long-term consequences for his rule and war in Ukraine.
Putin’s image as a tough leader had been badly damaged by the Ukraine warwhich lasted for 16 months and claimed huge numbers of Russian forces. Analysts said Saturday’s march towards Moscow by forces under the command of his protégé Yevgeny Prigozhin revealed more weaknesses.
It also meant withdrawing from that battlefield some of the best forces fighting for Russia in Ukraine: Prigozhin’s Wagner forces and the Chechen forces sent to stop them.
After calling for an armed insurrection aimed at overthrowing Russia’s defense minister, Prigozhin and his militants appeared to gain control of the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don that oversees the fighting in Ukraine.
Then they advanced towards Moscow largely unhindered. Russian media reported that it had shot down several helicopters and a military communications plane. The Ministry of Defense has not commented.
They were stopped only by an agreement to send Prigozhin to neighboring Belarus, which supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that charges against him of waging an armed rebellion would be dropped, and Prigozhin ordered his forces to return to their field camps.
The government also said it would not prosecute Wagner fighters who took part, while those who did not join would be offered contracts by the Ministry of Defense.
Although Putin had earlier vowed to punish those behind the armed uprising, Peskov defended the reversal, saying that Putin’s “higher goal” was to “avoid bloodshed and internal confrontation with unexpected results”.
This amnesty contrasts with the fines and prison sentences imposed by the Russian authorities on thousands of people who, albeit indirectly, criticized the war.
Analysts and observers said that while it ended the current crisis, it may have embarked on a long-term crisis.
“For a dictatorship built on the idea of undisputed power, this was an extreme humiliation, and it’s hard to see the genie of doubt forced back into the bottle,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the university. St Andrews in Scotland. “So, if Prigozhin lost in the short term, then Putin is likely to be the loser in the long term.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has indicated that the challenge facing Putin comes from within.
“I think we’ve seen more cracks appear in the Russian interface,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press.” We have all sorts of new questions that Putin will have to address in the coming weeks and months.
Prigozhin, who sent out a series of audio and video updates during his revolution, has remained silent since the Kremlin announced the deal.
It is not clear if he was in Belarus yet or if any of Wagner’s forces would follow him.
In response to questions from the Associated Press, Prigozhin’s press office replied that he could not respond immediately but would “answer questions when he gets a normal call.”
Video taken by the Associated Press in Rostov-on-Don showed people cheering Wagner’s troops as they left. Some ran to shake hands with Prigozhin, who was riding in an SUV.
The district governor later said that all forces had left the city. Russian news agencies also reported that the Lipetsk authorities confirmed that Wagner’s forces had left the area on the road to Moscow from Rostov.
Moscow had prepared for the arrival of Wagner’s forces by setting up checkpoints with armored vehicles and troops on the city’s southern edge. Chechen state television in Chechnya reported that about 3,000 Chechen soldiers were withdrawn from fighting in Ukraine and rushed there early Saturday morning. Russian troops armed with motorized rifles set up checkpoints on the southern outskirts of Moscow. Crews dug sections of the highway to slow down the march.
By Sunday afternoon, the troops had withdrawn from the capital, and people flooded the streets and flocked to the cafés. Traffic has returned to normal and barriers and checkpoints have been removed, but Red Square remains close to visitors. On the highways to Moscow, crews repaired roads in panic hours before.
State-controlled television presenters described the deal that ended the crisis as a show of Putin’s wisdom, broadcasting footage of Wagner’s soldiers withdrawing from Rostov-on-Don to the relief of locals who feared a bloody battle for control of the city.
People interviewed by Channel One praised Putin’s role.
But the US-based Institute for the Study of War warned that “the Kremlin now faces a very precarious balance”.
“The deal is a short-term solution, not a long-term solution,” wrote the institute, which has followed the war in Ukraine from the beginning.
Prigozhin had demanded the dismissal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoiguwhom Prigozhin has long criticized in bad terms for his conduct of the war in Ukraine.
The United States had intelligence that Prigozhin had been massing his forces near the border with Russia for some time. This contradicts Prigozhin’s claim that his revolt was in response to the Russian military’s attack on its camps in Ukraine on Friday.
Announcing the rebellion, Prigozhin accused Russian forces of targeting the Wagner camps in Ukraine with missiles, helicopter gunships and artillery. He claimed that General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, ordered the attacks after a meeting with Shoigu in which they decided to destroy the military contractor.
The Ministry of Defense denied attacking the camps.
A person familiar with the matter said congressional leaders were briefed on the Wagner rally earlier this week. The person was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity. The US intelligence brief was first reported by CNN.
A possible trigger for Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Russian Defense Ministry’s demand, which Putin has supported, that private companies sign contracts with it by July 1. Prigozhin refused to do so.
The Ukrainians hope that the Russian infighting will create opportunities for their army to reconquer territories captured by Russian forces.
“These events will be a huge relief to the Ukrainian government and military,” said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Wagner’s forces played a decisive role in the Ukraine War, capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut, the area where the bloodiest and longest battles took place.
The Kremlin’s offer to pardon Prigozhin was negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who may have raised his profile in his relationship with Putin.
The 62-year-old Prigozhin, an ex-convict, has longstanding ties to Putin and has won lucrative catering contracts in the Kremlin that have earned him the nickname “Putin’s chef”.
Wagner sent military contractors to Libya, Syria and several African countries, as well as Ukraine.
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Associated Press writers Danica Kirka in London and Nauman Merchant in Washington contributed.
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Follow AP coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine-war
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