Ukrainian army advances to Lyman, new Russians head to front line, says ISW

Ukrainian soldiers in the Kharkiv region

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Its analysts cited data from Russian sources that Ukrainian artillery fire succeeded in cutting off the last logistical route of Russian forces to Lyman, which passes through the Svatov-Makeevka-Terny road north of Lyman.

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Commenting on the official information about the liberation of the town of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, east of Kupyansk itself, ISW indicated that it is one of the largest railway junctions in the Kharkiv Oblast. According to unconfirmed information from Russian sources monitored by the institute, Ukrainian forces are also continuing their offensive on Tavelganka (about 18 kilometers northeast of Kobyansk-Vozlovy on the eastern bank of the Uskil River) and have taken positions northwest of the Uskil River. village.

Analysts added that there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have captured a number of new sites in the Lyman region.

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ISW also noted the “alleged results of illegal sham referendums announced by the Russian authorities, which Russia tried to imitate on September 23-27 in the occupied parts of the Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk and Luhansk states of Ukraine, where it is claimed that from 87% to 99% of the electorate” They supported “joining Russia,” “predetermined and falsified.”

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin He is likely to announce Russia’s annexation of these occupied territories on September 30 – perhaps before or during his speech to both houses of the Russian parliament. ISW previously predicted that this would enable Putin to ensure the compulsory mobilization of Ukrainian citizens between the ages of 18 and 27 in the occupied territories into the Russian army shortly after October 1, when Russian conscription begins in the fall — a move that could be considered a crime. against humanity.

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Meanwhile, the Russian army is already sending soldiers recently mobilized into units of the Western Military District to the front line in Kherson and Kharkiv states without prior training. One of the mobilized soldiers, who identified himself as a member of the 1st Tank Regiment in an unidentified unit, recorded a video message in which he stated that his unit would not be trained before it was transferred to Kherson Oblast on September 29. Radio Liberty journalist Mark Krutov geolocated this soldier as the base of the 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division in Kalininka, Moscow Territory.

ISW previously reported that Russia deployed units of the 147th Artillery Battalion of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division in the Kherson Oblast in late August, and is now likely trying to quickly replenish units in the south (previously operating in the Kyiv and Kharkiv states) with newly untrained “people mobilizing”. “. On August 30, units of the same 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, previously deployed to Izyum, requested permission to leave their positions due to moral exhaustion.

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The Russian opposition media of Medizona also reported that mobilized soldiers of the 237th Tank Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the Armed Forces, stationed in Valoiky (Belgorod Oblast), were deployed to the front lines in the Donbass after only a day of training. This 237th Regiment has also been operating near Iseum since the end of March.

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“Men mobilized for a day or two of training are unlikely to bolster Russian positions affected by Ukrainian counter-attacks in the south and east,” ISW wrote.

Other conclusions of ISW analysts over the past day:

  • Ukrainian forces consolidate their positions on the eastern bank of the Oskil River and make further gains on the outskirts of Lyman;

  • Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian land lines of communications (GLOCs) as part of the southern counterattack interception campaign, notably disrupting Russian efforts to build barge crossings;

  • Russian forces continued their unsuccessful offensive operations around Bakhmut and western Donetsk, taking increasingly advantage of punitive units;

  • Russian forces inflicted severe damage on a Ukrainian airfield in Kryvyi Rih and routine air and missile strikes continued across southern Ukraine;

  • Russian authorities set up checkpoints at the Russian border to forcibly mobilize Russian men seeking to avoid forced mobilization by fleeing the country;

  • Russian officials set conditions for the mobilization or forced conscription of Ukrainian civilians in the soon-to-be-annexed areas of occupied Ukraine;

  • The annexation of occupied Russian Donetsk and Luhansk is likely to exacerbate tensions within the DRC and LPR forces, who regularly rebel when called upon to fight outside the borders of their states;

  • Russian officials may try to reframe their invasion of Ukraine and the occupation of the soon-to-be-annexed Ukrainian territory as an “anti-terror operation.”

Map of hostilities: Ukrainian offensive in the east and south, fighting in Donbass

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