According to Sven Biskop, an analyst at the Egmont Institute, with the war in Ukraine, Russia has embarked on a path of weakening on the international stage.
The destruction of the Khakovka dam marks a new escalation in the war in Ukraine. This destruction resulted in a massive flood. More than 40,000 people are threatened, many evacuated and others drowned. It is a humanitarian and environmental disaster.
Euronews interviewed Sven Biscop, Europe’s head of the World Program at the Egmont Institute.
Euronews:
Exiled members of the Russian opposition party promise that Vladimir Putin will sooner or later lose power if the war in Ukraine continues. Do you share this analysis?
Sven Biskopp:
It’s certainly something we can hope for, but so far we’re seeing very few signs. The war seems to be gaining even stronger popular support. This may change, but for now it is changing. It’s also hard to see who can take the initiative to bring down (Vladimir) Putin, because that would obviously be a huge risk. I think only those who control military forces can do that. So, for now, I think our strategy is best grounded in the likely scenario that the regime stays in power and continues the war.
Euronews:
In your last analysis you raise the question of a New World Order. What will post-Putin Russia look like from a geopolitical perspective?
Sven Biskopp:
Putin, of course, has weakened Russia significantly because I think we are in a multipolar world. There are many great powers, and what they are trying to do is keep their options open and work together, cooperating, but simultaneously competing with everyone in an ever-changing constellation. What you don’t want to do is limit your options. That’s what Vladimir Putin did, he completely alienated the US and the EU. His only choice is China. Whatever happens, Russia is in a very weak position. One imagines that Putin’s successor is likely to be an authoritarian leader, but perhaps more pragmatic.
Euronews:
Could Europe benefit from the rapprochement of Ukraine and Moldova, and what will happen next?
Sven Biskopp:
Good news. We can say that Western structures are consolidating in Kosovo, Finland and Sweden joining NATO or Denmark abandoning its insults. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be a challenge, to ensure that we continue to support Moldova and Ukraine militarily and economically. But these two countries need to reform themselves before they can show they are ready to join the EU.
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