Mawar: A monster cyclone event in the Pacific

News weather

By Regis CrebetMeteorologist

Super Typhoon Mawar is currently forming in the northwest Pacific Ocean. It is slowly moving towards Taiwan, but should not threaten land directly. This is currently the most powerful event since the beginning of the year.

Superstorm Mawar is forming in the northwest Pacific Ocean, in the Philippine Sea. This week the US island of Guam was hit with winds of 200 km/h. This Saturday, it has been downgraded to Category 4/5 with maximum winds of 180 kmph and gusts of more than 250 kmph. Its course, towards the northwest, drives it south of Taiwan.

The most significant hurricane event of 2023

To date, Super Typhoon Mawar has been the strongest event since early 2023. In this region, hurricanes can form throughout the year, but the peak activity period usually occurs between July and November. So Mawar happens early, especially in view of its power.

Fortunately, this weather “monster” is currently located in the open ocean far away from the Philippines and Taiwan. But forecasts call for a track to the northwest, between the north of the Philippines and the south of Taiwan. It should arrive in this department on Sunday. At that point, it should be gradually weakened by drenching in very cold water to return to Type 2/5, which is a big event. Forecasts present uncertainty over further evolution, probably a northward slide. Therefore, he should avoid the islands.

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Instead, this year’s hurricane forecasts will worsen

According to Tropical Storm Risk, an organization that specializes in hurricane forecasting, this part of the Pacific Ocean should be 30% more active on average this year. It may be one of the busiest years in 30 years. One of the reasons for these predictions stems from the phenomenon El NinoThis causes warming of the surface water, which is one of the key parameters in the formation of cyclones.

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