Russian tank destroyed 25 miles west of Kyiv. A former US diplomat said that Russia failed to achieve its main tactical goals in the first 100 days of the Ukraine war.
(Photo by Sergei Chuzavkov/SOPA Images/Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images
William Courtney, associate fellow at RAND Corporation, told CNBC that Russia failed to achieve its strategic goals in the first 100 days of the war, and Ukraine did not need to concede significant territory to end it.capital connection” on Monday.
Russia began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, calling it a “special military operation.” The war entered its 100th day on Friday.
“Over the course of 100 days, the Russians retreated from their goals, at least tactically, and perhaps not strategically, quite a lot. The original goal was to capture three major cities: Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa. Russian forces were forced to withdraw from Kyiv and Kharkiv. And [they] “We couldn’t get close to Odessa,” said Courtney, who also served as the US ambassador to Georgia and Kazakhstan.
regime change?
Courtney said there was a chance the war could lead to the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin from office. “There may be regime change in Russia,” he said. “The intense pressure that Western sanctions are beginning to impose on the Russian economy, along with setbacks on the battlefield, could cause … popular unrest and internal conflict among the elite.”
Noting that these battlefield “setbacks” are embarrassing for Russia, Courtney said the Ukrainians had even managed to retake some parts of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine despite Russia massing its forces in that region.
“So (failure to achieve) these key objectives is very embarrassing for Russia. At the moment, the Russians are concentrating their forces in Donetsk, but what is interesting is that Ukrainian forces have managed to retake some parts of Donetsk in the past two days,” he said, adding that this indicates That Russia may not be able to deploy a greater force.
‘A proxy war’
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, speaking at the World Economic Forum on May 23, called for a diplomatic solution to end the war, including Possible territorial concessions by Ukraine. But Ukraine vehemently rejected the idea. French President Emmanuel Macron recently said that Russia should not be “humiliated.”
But Courtney takes a different view, ruling out the need for a “face-saving solution” for Russia to end the war. Referring to historical events, the The Soviet Union did not need to cool off to withdraw from Afghanistan in 1989 or to end the Cuban Missile Crisis.
“It will [not] “It is essential that Ukraine make major territorial concessions to achieve peace,” Courtney said, adding that there is strong support for Ukraine in Western countries. “This has become a proxy war. It’s not just Russia’s war against Ukraine. It’s really a Russian war against the West,” he added.
The battlefield is still smooth. The final outcome will largely depend on where the troops are when the fighting stops.
William Courtney
Former US diplomat
He said it was “too early” to know which team would win. “The battlefield is still volatile. The final outcome will largely depend on where the troops are when the fighting stops,” he said, adding that the Russians still occupy a “good space” between western Russia and Crimea.
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